The Indiana Pacers look to defend home court and take a commanding 3-1 series lead against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday after dropping Game 3 in a lopsided 126-104 defeat.
Donovan Mitchell's explosive 43-point performance powered Cleveland's bounce-back win, but Indiana—who won both games in Cleveland to open the series—aims to regain momentum at Gainbridge Fieldhouse where they've been formidable throughout the playoffs.
With no injuries reported for either squad, this pivotal Eastern Conference semifinal showdown features two of the NBA's most potent offenses that combined for over 230 points in their first two meetings.
Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers prediction: who will win?
For today's Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers matchup, our predictive model gives the Cavs a 67.5% chance of defeating the Pacers.
Pre-game probabilities

Indiana Pacers
Moneyline
Win %
32.5%
67.5%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Indiana Pacers: 32.5% win probability
- Weaker defensive performance (9441 points allowed, 10th in Eastern Conference)
- Significant win differential (50 wins vs Cleveland's 64 wins)
- Lower overall standing (4th in East vs Cleveland's 1st place position)
Cleveland Cavaliers: 67.5% win probability
- League-leading record (64-18 in the Eastern Conference)
- Elite defensive efficiency (9217 points allowed, 2nd best in the league)
- Sustained excellence (recent form includes 3 wins in last 5 games)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts.
Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
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Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers preview
The Pacers look to defend home court and push Cleveland to the brink of elimination in this pivotal Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Sunday night.
After steamrolling the Cavaliers in Games 1 and 2, Indiana was completely overwhelmed on Friday as Donovan Mitchell exploded for 43 points in Cleveland's dominant 126-104 victory.
The Cavs' dominance on the glass was particularly telling, as they outrebounded Indiana 56-37 and never trailed in a game where they led by as many as 26 points.
Indiana's second-quarter collapse—scoring just 13 points—proved catastrophic, turning a tie game into a 21-point halftime deficit they couldn't overcome.
The series has all the makings of a high-scoring affair, with both teams ranking among the league's most explosive offenses and each showing a willingness to push tempo when given the opportunity.
Bennedict Mathurin's 23-point performance in the Game 3 loss offers a silver lining for the Pacers, who'll need more production from stars Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton if they hope to regain control of the series.
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